Barclays Reiterates Overweight on Marvell, $275 PT
Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley reiterated an Overweight rating and $275 price target on Marvell (NASDAQ: MRVL) on August 20, 2026.
“The warrant announcement this morning represents a material positive for MRVL as it enters the largest ASIC players domain and has a potential revenue opportunity of $120B through FY33 if all warrants are exercised.
The knee jerk reaction is that this is more evidence of share loss at AVGO, but our view is that this is not a TPU project and likely some smaller inference effort.
We believe this is likely a GOOGL attempt to have a more tailored/specialized solution using MRVL IP, such as an LPU-like solution.
Given the size of the agreement, we think success with this project could potentially scale this into more meaningful sockets, but this is no guarantee.
We still expect AVGO to be the majority of TPU volume and reiterate its long-term supply agreement for TPUs.
If you take the deal at face value and split it evenly across each year including the share dilution, the GOOGL opportunity represents roughly $18.5B per year of incremental revenue and ~$6.15 in incremental EPS using a 35% OpM for the ASIC business.
This $6.15 represents a near doubling of EPS vs. current street estimates of $6.28 for FY28 (includes share dilution and revenue contribution at 35% OpM).
We would expect this deal to be backend loaded and note that warrants are used to incentivize investment and significant R&D but may not be met in full.
We think another interesting point to spotlight is on memory interface controllers and near memory compute business that are highlighted in the release.
We think this could come in the form of a CXL partnership where MRVL already expects $1B in CXL custom XPU attach revenue in CY28.
Walking away. we think the announcement highlights industry demand and MRVL’s position as a leading player across memory and accelerators.”
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