Oppenheimer Reaffirms Perform on Meta

Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein reiterated a Perform rating on Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META).

“Despite early Muse success, monetization is uncertain and FY27 consensus opex outlook is too low, in our view.

While US downloads at ~340k/day (Apptopia) similar to ChatGPT peak, an acceleration to 500K/day for >year would only increase 2027E revenue by 4%.

Importantly, this scenario assumes 100% download-to-DAU conversion, zero churn and 28% of users pay, all highly unlikely scenarios.

By CEO’s own admission at Wednesday’s Connect event, Muse monetization has to come from creating an agentic ecommerce business vs. subscriptions, requiring GMV larger than WMT’s ex-grocery today.

While not impossible, consumer adoption could take years.

Separately, our opex analysis suggests Street is mis-modeling neocloud deals/ depreciation in 2027. Shares trading 25x 2027E EPS vs. GOOG’s 22x.”

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