Bernstein Maintains Outperform on SpaceX, $248 PT
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Douglas Harned reiterated an Outperform rating and $248 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX).
“Starlink’s residential broadband business – How big can this become? Big!; In this Research Call, we examine the SpaceX Starlink residential broadband business opportunity in detail.
We expect this segment of Connectivity to generate approximately $64bn in revenues in 2031.
Starlink roughly doubled its broadband subscriber base in each of the past four years and is expected to double again this year.
In doing so, it has taken share not only from legacy satellite broadband (SBB) providers, but increasingly from other broadband technologies as well.
Based on 2026 global BB market size (residential and SMB) and considering population growth, we estimate a base case of 168m subscribers in 2031.
Over time, ARPU will decline as Starlink’s global footprint expands. We now estimate $64bn in consumer/SMB broadband revenue in 2031, slightly down from our prior $66bn.
Our opportunity sizing is based on four key assumptions: (1) Starlink captures essentially 100% of SBB subscribers in markets where it operates, as geostationary services are effectively obsolete at this point; (2) Starlink is able to take share from non-fiber broadband technologies, including FWA, cable, and DSL; (3) Starlink is able to connect a portion of currently unconnected households, given that nearly half of global households remains unconnected, primarily in developing markets; and (4) Starlink broadband capacity is not a constraint, given the huge capacity planned for deployment.
While we believe these assumptions are reasonable given Starlink’s long-term plans and compelling operating momentum, there are downside risks, as with any business case.
We update our model to reflect our estimate for a faster near-term connectivity buildout, resulting in FY26 diluted EPS improving from ($0.20) to ($0.19) and FY27 diluted EPS increasing from $1.30 to $1.37.”
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