Bernstein Raises SpaceX Price Target to $248
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Douglas Harned raised the price target on SpaceX (SPCX) to $248 (from $239) while maintaining an Outperform rating on August 6, 2026.
“SpaceX reported Q2 earnings after the close on August 4th.
The company raised assumptions regarding its revenue trajectory ($1tn in 2030, rather than 2031 previously). This was not about higher launch rates of orbital data centers.
Instead, it is about higher pricing of compute sales, combined with a more aggressive terrestrial AI buildout. The capex for that terrestrial buildout made some investors uncomfortable.
But, we see it as positive, if the company can monetize the capacity at $30-50/watt, as it believes.
Separately, the company has closed on its design for the orbital data centers.
Regarding Starship reuse, management expressed confidence in the heat shield on Launch 13, with Elon Musk saying the “problem is resolved”, despite some third parties expressing skepticism.
On Launch 14, the goal is to go to orbit and deploy operational V3 Starlilnk satellites, and do a second stage catch. This will require FAA approval, but could happen in the next few weeks.
SpaceX plans to go to one Starship launch per day by the end of 2027, which we see as plausible if reuse is on target, even though it is above our estimates.
Five launch pads are planned to be in service by then. Starlink consumer and enterprise/ government broadband are progressing well, although we hope to see more
We see Q2 as a net positive. We raise our revenue and earnings outlook on more terrestrial AI and better compute pricing.
Impact on valuation is partly offset by higher capex and slightly lower multiples on AI related stocks.
Starlink broadband (consumer/enterprise and government) remains strong, even though we have concerns about mobile business.”
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