Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Neutral on Rivian, $19 Price Target

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated a Neutral rating and $19 price target on Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ: RIVN).

“Rivian Pre-Announces 3Q26 Deliveries and Production.

On 10/2, RIVN pre-announced that it delivered 19,248 vehicles in 3Q26, above our estimate/Visible Alpha Consensus of 18,228/18,001 vehicles, (and above 13,201 in 3Q25).

Additionally, RIVN also pre-announced that it produced 19,751 vehicles in 3Q26, above our estimate/consensus of 19,600/17,647 vehicles (and above 10,720 in 3Q25). FY26 Delivery Outlook Reaffirmed.

Rivian reaffirmed its FY26 vehicle delivery guidance of 65,000-70,000 vehicles, vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha Consensus of 67,511/66,685. What’s Next?

RIVN will report 3Q26 earnings on 10/29 after the market close and host its earnings call at 5:00 PM ET. Rivian also announced it will be hosting its next Autonomy and AI day in San Francisco on 12/9.

R2 Launched, and Above Initial Management Expectations.

Rivian previously announced that deliveries, order invitations, and demo drives for its R2 have begun, with vehicles rolling off the production line at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois.

RIVN first launched deliveries of its R2 Performance with Launch Package (at a starting price of $57,990), and is now targeting to launch its Premium trim ($53,990) a Standard trim ($48,490) over the next few months.

We continue to expect R2 deliveries to materially boost customer demand (driven by the more competitive price point and the recently unveiled autonomy features). CFO Transition.

The company previously announced that its CFO, Claire McDonough, will be stepping down on 10/30, after nearly six years, and we expect the company to pursue a permanent CFO replacement by early next year.

Robotaxi Partnership with Uber. RIVN previously announced a partnership with Uber to deploy up to 50,000 fully autonomous Robotaxis exclusively on the Uber platform.

As part of this agreement, Uber is expected to purchase 10,000 autonomous R2 vehicles initially, with an option to purchase up to 40,000 additional vehicles in 2030.

Rivian’s management is targeting initial commercial deployments to begin in 2028 in San Francisco and Miami, with later plans to scale up to 25 cities by 2031.

Additionally, as part of this agreement, Uber will invest up to $1.25B in Rivian (through 2031), contingent on the achievement of specified autonomy milestones.

Rivian’s Near-Term (Potential) Catalysts: RAP1 Chip Launch (we expect 2H26E); Autonomy Point-to-Point Initial Launch (we expect 2H26E); Autonomy and AI Day (12/9; R2 Premium Trim Launch (we expect 2H26E/1H27); Rivian Assistant Launch on R2 (we expect 2H26E); R2 Standard Trim Launch (we expect 1H27E); Autonomy Eyes-Off Launch (we expect 2027E); and Autonomy L4 Robotaxi Launch (we expect 2028E).

Valuation: Our Neutral rating and our 12-month $19 PT are unchanged, pending a full model update. We arrive at our $19 PT via a bottom-up, 10-year DCF.

Key Risks include: Manufacturing constraints, highly competitive market, slower-than-expected customer adoption, and continued supply-chain disruptions.”

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