Stifel Maintains Buy on TSMC, $515 Price Target

Stifel analyst Sahej Singh reiterated a Buy rating and $515 price target on Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM).

“TSM’s September revenue declined 0.6% sequentially, in range of seasonality, closing 3Q at NT$1.49T, or ~US$46.7B at the guided NT$32.00, about 2% above the top of the guided range and ~2.5% ahead of consensus.

With 3Q known, our attention moves to 4Q.

YTD growth of 41.1% already clears the slightly-above-40% full-year guide, so holding that guide would imply 4Q down ~4% sequentially, against a historical 4Q average of roughly +8%.

Even a flat 4Q implies ~42% for the year, and a seasonally average one ~45%, so we expect the Oct 15 call to bring a 4Q guide that lifts the full-year outlook, with margin the remaining debate.

The stock has pulled back even as revisions stay positive, which we attribute to rates and AI-related headlines rather than fundamentals.”

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