UBS Reiterates Buy on ASML, €2,350 Price Target

UBS analyst Francois-Xavier Bouvignies reiterated a Buy rating and EUR2,350 price target on ASML Holding NV (ASML:NA) (NASDAQ: ASML).

“Q3’26 net sales were €11.6bn, in line with consensus, primarily driven by installed base management sales of €3.3bn and 13% above consensus.

EUV system sales were €4.1bn up 94% y-o-y but 7% below consensus; 2) China system sales increased 110% q-o-q and decreased 17% y-o-y in Q3, in line with China import data, representing 23% of Q3 26 product sales.

ASML continues to expect China to normalise to 20% of group sales this year, implying China down 7% y-o-y; 3) ASML noted that the planned 30% increase in Low-NA EUV and immersion DUV capacity in 2027 and 2028 will not be sufficient to meet customer demand.

The company is looking at ways to further extend capacity, especially in 2028, and is also developing upgrades for installed base.

The company received “a lot of order intake for 2028” and “strong interest to place orders for 2029 and sometimes 2030”.

This suggests in our view a significant backlog to be disclosed next quarter well above cons as we highlighted here ; 4) Gross margin was 57.5% vs. cons of 56%, leading to Q3 EBIT 5% above cons; 5) Pricing conversations have been completed and the effect will start to become visible partly in 2027 with the full impact appearing in 2028.”

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