BofA Securities Lowers Lam Research Price Target to $345

BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya lowered the price target on Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) to $345 (from $385) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“SepQ sales/pf-EPS 1%/1% above Street and DecQ’s outlook is essentially in line but would have been higher barring industry supply constraints.

We highlight: (1) supply constraints not specified, but they are industry-wide issues (not LRCX-specific) and per our recent industry discussions at SEMICON West are likely related to gas delivery subsystems.

We see this as a transitory issue; (2) following mid-$150bn WFE IN CY26 (+30% YoY), mgmt.’s preliminary CY27E view is >$200bn but we think this gets revised up as cleanroom availability clarifies.

CY28E should be another strong year (we model >20% YoY) per peers (ASML guided to +30% YoY output growth CY28) and customer broadening (e.g.

TeraFab); (2) as memory hierarchy for AI evolves, NAND gains prominence, increasing the likelihood of substantial greenfield adds in CY28E as every 2% of SLC bit-demand could require 2% incremental wafers; (3) etch/deposition intensity remains robust, and LRCX’s key products (Akara, Aether) are all gaining momentum, suggesting share gains tracking well; (4) despite China declining materially in DecQ, gross margins guided flat/slightly up to 54.5%, an indication of pricing power for new products and volume tailwinds, a sustainable driver ahead.

We modestly raise CY27/28E pf-EPS by 1%/1% but lower PO to $345 (25x CY28E PE) from $385 prior (29x CY28E) on broader semicap multiple de-rating. Reiterate Buy.”

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