B. Riley Lowers ON Semiconductor Price Target to $97

B.Riley analyst Craig Ellis lowered the price target on ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ON) to $97 (from $105) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“ON Semi’s (ON — Buy, PT from $105 to $97) 11/2 AMC 3Q26 print and 4Q26 guide were slightly above consensus, with signs of much better-than-expected AI data center strength inside a broadening but not yet full upturn.

To start, AI Data Center 3Q sales grew 2x our forecast, CY26’s target rises 20%+ to $620M, and yet CY27 sales are still forecast to rise 2x to $1.2B+.

Further, Industrial is rising strongly through 2H26, we suspect led by Energy Infrastructure and Aerospace and Defense, and though Auto dips in 4Q26, we sense despite rising orders but with a more measured shipment response.

Showing incremental progress, GM was moderately ahead in the quarter and outlook, even as core ingredients to 53.0 target GM attainment are on track.

A $0.6B Ferric integrated voltage regulator deal, with $175M in earn-outs, was announced to complement high-voltage GPU and XPU data center needs.

Coupled with the AI Data Center segment upside, CY30’s AI data center target rose $500B+ to $3.0B.

Overall, our CY26-28 EPS fine-tune higher, exclude the Synaptics and Ferric deals, and show strong CY27&28 Y/Y gains.

Shares, after a -9% 4Q26TD dip (SOX -18%), eased -2% AMC with a ~16x consensus F2-Yr P/E in the bottom half of the T16-year range.

Bears may cite still-absent Auto unit acceleration, while bulls counter with upward Data Center revenue revisions as progress toward Analyst Day’s ~ $10.00 CY30 EPS target.

We retain a Buy rating and $97 PT with ~39% upside.”

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