Yorkville Ives Maintains Outperform on NVIDIA, $300 Price Target

Yorkville Ives analyst Dan Ives reiterated an Outperform rating and $300 price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

“Right now the Street and investor chatter is assigning roughly a 15% chance he is removed as CEO of Nvidia with a high probability (85%) he stays on as CEO after the Board investigation is completed. We would expect a Board investigation that could take 4 weeks to 6 weeks and will create a clear overhang on the stock until more news emerges from Nvidia.

That said, there will be constant articles and DC leaks about Nvidia and Jensen and this will have a clear impact on the stock. Adding to the Jensen situation yesterday afternoon President Trump said the FBI is investigating the issue as well and “I think that he’ll be in good shape”.

At the end of the day, there is only one Jensen and Nvidia will dramatically change as a company if he is no longer CEO with a major negative ripple impact across the tech industry and AI Revolution. We believe if Jensen was removed as CEO, Nvidia is worth a lot less (25%-30%) as a company/stock and would change the future direction of the company and create a dramatically different competitive environment around AI GPUs both in the US and globally especially for China.

Three House Republican chairs sent a letter to Jensen asking him to sit for a closed door briefing with lawmakers next week on November 18, a day after the company is scheduled to report earnings. The national security concerns regarding a Chinese spy gaining access to sensitive US technology and information is naturally the central concerning worry for DC lawmakers, the Board, US tech industry, and investors.

Jensen is the core DNA of Nvidia and its AI success and ambitions are heavily tied to him staying on as CEO. Jensen is not replaceable..there is no other person on the management team bench that can step in seamlessly as CEO and that speaks to the key man risk now with Nvidia that investors will factor this dynamic to the stock.

Jensen has become the global face of the AI Revolution and that now will be front and center for Nvidia how to navigate this very difficult situation looking forward.

That said, Jensen now has risked this all potentially and put himself and the company in a very negative spotlight globally and his fate (and the future path of Nvidia) rests in the Board investigation results one way or another.”

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