KeyBanc Affirms Sector Weight on NVIDIA

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh reiterated a Sector Weight rating on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

“Expect strong results and guidance despite Rubin constraints, as higher GB300 shipments offset constrained Rubin volumes. We expect NVDA to report strong results and guidance, primarily driven by continued Blackwell shipments and incremental GB300 volumes and initial Rubin shipments despite NT constraints.

Supply chain feedback indicates Rubin GPU production is ramping more slowly than previously expected due to limited SK Hynix HBM4 supply, with reported overheating/yield issues constraining output. While SK Hynix has respun its HBM4 base die to meet NVDA’s higher throughput requirements and is undergoing requalification, we hear Samsung and MU are supplying the majority of HBM4 in the NT.

As such, we previously lowered our 2026 Rubin GPU shipment est to 1.5M units from 1.7M-1.8M prior. However, we expect NVDA to backfill lower Rubin shipments with additional Blackwell shipments, maintaining our full-year GPU shipment est of 5.5M-6M units, and anticipate 80K total rack shipments in 2026, with the majority being GB300 racks (<5K VR200 racks this year).”

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