Morgan Stanley Raises Tesla Price Target to $430

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $430 (from $400) while maintaining an Overweight rating.

“As interest in AVs continues to rise, we have undertaken the most extensive re-architecture and expansion of our Tesla Mobility (robotaxi) model since initially published in 2015.

While autos still matter, we see embodied AI as the driver for upside to revised $800 bull case. Reiterate Top Pick.

Investors increasingly acknowledge the relevance of embodied AI in a highly competitive and complex geopolitical environment.

In our view, Tesla’s recent share price appreciation has begun to discount the expanding ‘surface area’ between Tesla and physical AI including the company’s natural advantages in terms of data collection, robotics, energy storage, AI/compute, manufacturing and supporting infrastructure – including the benefits of working across Elon Musk’s other companies (SpaceX, xAI, etc).

However, we still see scope for 2025 to be a year where the market’s appreciation for Tesla’s unique combination of skills can be further reflected in the multiple, offsetting the relatively well-known challenges to the FY25 EV market.

As we look ahead to FY25 and beyond, we expect to see TSLA’s TAM aperture further expand to broader domains, many of which are still not included in buyside or sell-side financial models for the company.

Accordingly, we have revisited and expanded the assumptions in our Network Services and Tesla Mobility (autonomous rideshare) models to provide a framework for investors to help value these existing and nascent industries of embodied AI where we believe Tesla has established a material competitive advantage.”

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