UBS Raises Tesla Price Target to $259

UBS analyst Joseph Spak raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $259 (from $226) while maintaining a Sell rating.

“We continue to be impressed with TSLA’s initiatives and the progress they are making on FSD and Optimus.

Our challenge remains that the actual numbers and more easily identifiable forecasts relate to auto and energy. That is not to say that there shouldn’t be any value assigned to these future endeavors.

However, by our estimates, auto+energy is worth ~$53/share. That means even at last close, all these other ventures are already being valued at nearly ~$1.2 trillion, today.

While we do agree TSLA has as good an opportunity as anyone to achieve and capitalize on these goals, more investors we speak to acknowledge there is still technology and execution risk as well as timing uncertainty (certainly with Optimus).

It’s one thing to say we believe TSLA can eventually capitalize on humanoid robots. But conceptually, it does matter to today’s valuation how quickly that occurs and ramps.

Further, if one believes that the direction of travel on forward 1-2 year EPS estimates dictates the stock (which we tend to believe), we don’t believe they will meaningfully contribute to earnings in 2026.

Rather, we see potential for GM% pressure as TSLA pushes for volume (low cost model, promotional/financing activity especially if offset elimination of tax credit in US and competitive Europe).

We also see some risk (but not immediate) to reg credit profit ($2.7bn or ~25% of EPS in 2024).”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.