Piper Sandler Downgrades Rivian to Neutral, $13 Price Target

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter downgraded Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ: RIVN) from Overweight to Neutral with a price target of $13 (from $19).

“We’re downgrading RIVN, but for what it’s worth, this is now our “favorite Neutral”. We like Rivian’s strategy, particularly self-reliance in electronics and software.

The joint venture with VW helped de-risk the balance sheet while validating the strategy. Recent COGS/unit trends are also encouraging ($30k+ y/y reduction in 4Q24 vs. 4Q23).

Despite our generally favorable view, we struggle to identify upside catalysts in 2025.

In 2026, investors can look forward to the R2 launch, and (maybe) JV customer wins…but between now and then, Rivian has minimal growth and lots of heavy lifting.

We’re also wary of policy risk: RIVN is exposed to a potential triple-whammy in 2025. Our DCF-based price target is now $13, down from $19, due to dilution and WACC.

VW’s equity boosted the share count, while also reducing debt in the capital structure…as a result of this latter point, we now use WACC of 14.4%, up vs. 13.5% previously.”

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