RBC Capital Lowers Rivian Price Target to $10
- Rating
- Hold
- Target
- $10
- from $12 (−17%)
- Outcome
- Missed
- within 12 months
What the analyst said
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan lowered the price target on Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ: RIVN) to $10 (from $12) while maintaining a Sector Perform rating.
“Visible Alpha has Rivian losing $9B+ in FCF between 2024 and 2028.
According to the company, Rivian ended 2024 with $7.7B in cash and STI and including its credit facility, gross liquidity would be $9.1B.
Rivian indicated it has an incremental $4.32B in cash/loans coming from VW from ’24 through ’26 ($1B already came in June 2024).
Additionally, Rivian has debt maturities coming of $1.2B in 2026, $1.5B in 2029, and $1.725B in 2030. We expect some of these could be refinanced, however.
The company has also secured a $6.6B DOE loan that is intended for capex investment and is paid out as reimbursement for cash spend.
There is some investor debate whether the new US administration may try to delay the cash payouts to Rivian.
As such, it appears that Rivian could have enough cash to fund operations through the launch of R2.
Ultimately, a lot rests on the company’s ability to improve its underlying Gross Profit performance, excluding regulatory credits.
Longer term, we also worry about impacts of removing the IRA on R2/R3, as those products will cater to a more price sensitive customer.
We lower our valuation multiple to 1x Sales (down from 1.3x), consistent with peer levels. This brings our PT to $10 from $12.”
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Where the price stands
RIVN trades at $13.96. The 11 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $14 to $23, with a median of $20. This $10 target is 50% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note RIVN has moved +22% (from $11.46). The 12-month window closed on April 11, 2026.
Track record
This call✗ Not reached within 12 months: a year after the note RIVN closed at $15.90, 59% above the $10 target, and it moved the other way.
Firm track recordRBC Capital: 86% of its 7 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#7 of 20 firms); on Rivian, 1 of 2. Accuracy ranking →
RBC Capital on Rivian
RBC Capital price targets on Rivian
5 calls from April 11, 2025 to July 31, 2026. The target went from $10 to $16 (+60%). The rating stayed Hold.
- July 31, 2026Target raised from $14 (+14%)Hold$16
- December 4, 2025Kept the $14 targetHold$14
- November 12, 2025Kept the $14 targetHold$14
- May 19, 2025Target raised from $10 (+40%)Hold$14
- April 11, 2025 This noteEarliest call shownHold$10
