Susquehanna Raises Intel Price Target to $24

Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland raised the price target on Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) to $24 (from $22) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

“Intel reports 1Q earnings on Thursday, April 24th. We now expect generally in-line 1Q results on better PC (tariff related pull-in?) offset by continued weakness in Server.

2Q growth could be impacted by PC pull-aheads.

For Client, we now expect notebook builds to be up +1.5% YOY for 2025 (better than our flat YOY prior estimate) as 1Q is tracking better than expected, we suspect due to order pull-ins ahead of tariffs.

We believe this dynamic helped both 4Q/1Q, but may pose a risk to 2Q numbers and beyond. Our 1Q25 PC-SIGnals data [link] also suggests Intel lost modest laptop CPU share (while gaining in desktop).

Notably, Lunar Lake (LL) was just ~0.7% share of Intel-based laptops, while Arrow Lake (AL) represented ~0.8% share of Intel-based desktops, both ramping slower than prior-gen launches.

Furthermore, AL for laptop entered the dataset for the first time (launched Jan.) with just ~0.1% share of Intel-based laptops.

Interestingly, this slower ramp for LL and AL may help Intel gross margins as both products are built on costly external TSM (Hosseini: Positive) tiles.

Looking ahead, Panther Lake, Intel’s lead 18A product, is on track to launch in 2H25, with greater volumes and associated margin improvement expected in 2026 (mostly 18A tiles).

For DCAI, we note continued market share loss to AMD on a slower than expected ramp for its E-core products (aka Sierra Forest).

Additionally, Clearwater Forest is now targeted for 1H26, a slight pushout as Gelsinger previously mentioned a launch in 2025.

For AI, Falcon Shores (initially expected in 2025) will no longer be brought to market and Jaguar Shores comes later (2026?).

For NEX, we expect in-line results as Intel highlighted caution around macro uncertainty and seasonality.

We also expect in-line results for Altera as the business continues to work through channel inventory (Intel recently sold a 51% stake to Silver Lake for ~$4.5B).

For Intel Foundry, 18A timing remains a pivotal milestone for the future of the business.

Our checks have suggested increased 18A customer interest, and we expect a more detailed update from new CEO Lip-Bu Tan at their upcoming Foundry Direct Connect event.

Lastly, for Mobileye, we expect auto-related tariffs and Chinese competition to weigh on results.

Beyond the top line, we expect in-line margins in 1Q, but note that a slower LL/AL ramp could be a source of incremental upside.

In short, we expect Intel to post generally in-line results and guidance. Reiterate Neutral, but lower our PT from $24 to $22 (~2.5x 2025E EV/sales).”

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