Cantor Reiterates Tesla’s $425 Price Target
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated on May 19, 2025, an ‘Overweight’ rating and $425 price target on Tesla.
“We are encouraged by management’s reaffirmation of: launch of Robotaxi in Texas in June (next month), and the introduction of a lower-priced vehicle in 1H25 (we expect initial price of ~$30,000 inclusive of tax credit), which could be timely given the likely negative impact to vehicle prices due to tariff implementation and the likely removal of the tax credit.
We are also encouraged by Musk’s comments on the Q1 call, that his “time at DOGE will be significantly reduced starting in May, and that as a result, he plans to allocate more time to Tesla.
Other key material catalysts include: rollout of FSD in China (started in 1Q25), rollout of FSD in Europe (we expect 1H25, pending regulatory approval), high volume production of Optimus Bot (2026E), initial deliveries of Optimus to customers (we expect 2027E), and introduction of the Semi Truck (we expect SOP in 2026 and for TSLA to enter the self-driving trucking industry).
Separately, we continue to believe Tesla is better-positioned (relative to other OEMS) to mitigate the impact from tariffs, with global manufacturing facilities in the U.S., Germany, and China (given domestic sourcing and high degree of vertical integration).
Overall we continue to see future revenue upside from FSD, Robotaxi, Energy Storage & Deployment, and Optimus Bots to be fundamental to TSLA’s thesis over the long term.
However, we expect some near-term headwinds due to macro conditions, tariffs, Musk’s polarizing politics, and the likely removal of the EV Tax Credit (we expect in 4Q25/2026).
Next quarter, management expects to revise its 2025 automotive growth target (currently to “return to growth”) and/or its Energy Storage outlook of >50% YoY (grew >100% in FY24).”
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