Cantor Fitzgerald Reiterates $510 Price Target on Tesla

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated an Overweight rating and $510.00 price target on Tesla.

“In Q1, TSLA disclosed that its first-generation production line for the company’s humanoid robot (Optimus) is currently being installed in CA.

This line, which will replace the production lines for the Model S and X vehicles (currently being discontinued), is expected by management to have an annual production capacity of 1M Optimus Robots.

Additionally, TSLA is also preparing a second-generation production line (in Gigafactory Texas), which management is targeting for (longterm) annual production capacity of 10M robots.

We expect production of Optimus Gen 3 to ramp up in Fremont in late July/August 2026, with the second higher-volume factory under construction at Giga Texas targeting an SOP in the summer of 2027.

In our estimates, we assume initial Optimus deliveries will begin in 3Q27E, and while management has previously targeted an ASP of ~$20,000 (at scale), we expect initial ASP to be closer to ~$100,000.

We also expect initial deliveries will be targeted for commercial applications, before eventually also becoming available for personal consumers.

In our estimates, we model Optimus production of 2,500/6,000/18,000 in FY27/FY28/FY29, respectively, as we want to remain conservative in our assumptions.”

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