Cantor Reaffirms ‘Overweight’ Rating on Tesla
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated on May 27, 2025, an ‘Overweight’ rating and $355 price target on Tesla.
“Last week, Elon Musk reaffirmed Tesla’s plan to begin deploying fully autonomous robotaxis (via unsupervised FSD in Model Ys initially), by “the end of June,” in Austin.
Musk hinted to the initial rollout including a modest number of vehicles, before scaling and expanding into other cities by year-end.
Tesla then plans to roll out its cybercab (no steering wheelor pedals), in 2026. As of 1Q25, Tesla’s FSD (with supervision) has driven >3.5B cumulative miles.
Despite Tesla’s vehicles not using LiDAR, we continue to expect Tesla will capture a significant market share of the ride-sharing market.
Separately, Musk also reaffirmed that his role at DOGE is coming to an end and reiterated his commitment to Tesla over the next few years.
We remain encouraged by Musk’s reaffirmation of: the launch of Robotaxi in Texas in June (we expect towards end of month), and by his commitment to the business.
TSLA is also targeting to introduce its lower-priced vehicle in 1H25 (we expect initial price of ~$30,000 inclusive of tax credit), which could be timely given the likely negative impact to vehicle prices due to tariff implementation and the likely removal of the tax credit.
However, we continue to expect some near-term headwinds to the automotive business and the energy generation and storage segment, due to macro conditions, tariffs, and the likely removal of the EV Tax Credit (we expect in 4Q25/2026).
Recall next quarter management expects to revise its 2025 automotive growth target (currently to “return to growth” and/ or its Energy Storage outlook of >50% YoY (grew >100% in FY24).
Nonetheless, we remain bullish ahead of the introduction of lower-priced vehicle, and the rollout of Robotaxi.
Other key material catalysts include: rollout of FSD in China (started in 1Q25), rollout of FSD in Europe (we expect 1H25, pending regulatory approval), high volume production of Optimus Bot (2026E), initial deliveries of Optimus to customers (we expect 2027E), and introduction of the Semi Truck (we expect SOP in 2026 and for TSLA to enter the self-driving trucking industry).
Overall, we expect TSLA will capture a significant market share of the self- driving TAM in the U.S., and we continue to see future revenue from FSD, Robotaxi, Energy Storage & Deployment, and Optimus, to be fundamental to TSLA’s thesis over the long term.”
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