Baird Reiterates Outperform on NVIDIA, $195 Price Target
- Rating
- Buy
- Unchanged
- Target
- $195
- Outcome
- Reached
- on October 28, 2025
What the analyst said
Baird analyst Tristan Gerra reiterated an Outperform rating and $195 price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).
“Our $190B+ DC revenue estimate remains intact for this year, up nearly 70% YoY, embedding a sharp 2H re-acceleration. Our industry checks suggest no change in Blackwell full-year shipment estimates.
Sharp uptick in inferencing is driving B200 volumes.
Nvidia remains well ahead of the competition, and we note continued unit forecast reductions for custom ASICs currently being deployed due to below-expectation performance, while major ASIC ramps have been completed with a continued flattish unit outlook into next year.
We expect NVDA to rerate to a higher valuation into 2H. Outperform-rated.”
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Where the price stands
NVDA trades at $229. The 27 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $270 to $515, with a median of $315. This $195 target is 38% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note NVDA has moved +70% (from $135). The 12-month window closed on May 29, 2026.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on October 28, 2025, 5 months after the note.
Firm track recordBaird: 93% of its 15 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#4 of 20 firms); on NVIDIA, 3 of 3. Accuracy ranking →
Baird on NVIDIA
Baird price targets on NVIDIA
6 calls from August 25, 2025 to September 1, 2026. The target went from $225 to $500 (+122%). The rating stayed Buy.
