JP Morgan Keeps Tesla’s ‘Underweight’ Rating Ahead of Q2 Deliveries
JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated on July 1, 2025, an ‘Underweight’ rating and $115 price target on Tesla.
“Based on our checks, the softer demand for Tesla vehicles evident in 1Q results appears to have continued into 2Q, such that we now expect the rate of y/y decline in deliveries to accelerate from -13% y/y in 1Q to -19% y/y in 2Q, with deliveries falling from 444K a year ago to just 360K, representing a sizable -8% shortfall vs. Bloomberg consensus for 392K.
Based on our surveying of the trend in Tesla sales through the month of May for those regions of the world for which there is reliable publicly reported data (including most countries in Europe) and in some cases utilizing third party forecasts for other regions where there is not such data (such as by Motor Intelligence for the U.S. market), applying historical sequential seasonality to the latest available May figures to provide a reasonable basis for estimating June sales, and taking into account the trend in insurance registrations through the third week of June in China, we estimate Tesla is unlikely to deliver more than 360K vehicles in 2Q25.
We are consequently lowering our estimate of 2Q deliveries from the 395K we forecast at the time of 1Q earnings in April by -9.0% to now just 360K, an amount which is -8.3% below Bloomberg consensus for 392K and -6.5% below the company-compiled consensus of 385K.”
This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.
