JPMorgan Reiterates Underweight Rating and $145 PT on Tesla

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman reiterated an Underweight rating and $145.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

“We are lowering our estimates and reiterating our Underweight rating for Tesla (TSLA) shares after the firm reported 1Q26 deliveries of 358K, which is -4% lower than the most recent Bloomberg consensus for 372K deliveries, -7% less than the 385K we had forecast, and fully -74% below the 1,366K vehicles Bloomberg consensus once expected for 1Q26 deliveries at the time expectations peaked on June 9, 2022.

Energy storage installations of 8.8 GWh also surprised by falling -15% y/y — the first such y/y decline since 2Q22, -39% vs. company-compiled consensus for 14.4 GWh, and -42% vs. the 15.1 we had modeled.

Our EPS estimate for 1Q26 declines from $0.43 to $0.30 (below Bloomberg consensus for $0.38 that once stood as high as $3.68), while we lower our outlook for 2026 from $2.00 to $1.80 (below consensus for $1.95 that once stood as high as $9.77) and for 2027 from $2.45 to $2.25 (below consensus for $2.65 that once stood as high as $13.22).

We continue to see large -60% downside to our $145 December 2026 price target and advise investors approach TSLA shares with a high degree of caution, mindful of execution risk and the time value of money within the context of the materially stronger distant out-year earnings expectations implied by the rise in TSLA share price that has occurred alongside a material collapse in consensus for all performance metrics through at least the end of the decade (which also does not instill confidence in the company’s ability to achieve lofty out-year objectives).”

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