Cantor Reaffirms $355 Price Target on Tesla
TSLA will report 2Q25 earnings on Wed 7/23 after the market close and host its earnings call at 5:30 PM ET. We provide our preview below.
Vehicles Delivered/Produced, and Energy Deployed. TSLA previously announced that in Q2 it delivered 384,122 vehicles, which was in line with Visible Alpha consensus of 385,086, (and below 443,956 in 2Q24). TSLA also produced 410,244 vehicles in 2Q25, which was below Visible Alpha consensus of 434,227 vehicles (and in-line with 410,831 vehicles in 2Q24).
Energy Storage Update.Separately, Tesla also announced that it had deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage products in 2Q25, below Visible Alpha consensus of 11.8 GWh (and above ~9.4 GWh in 2Q24).
Estimate Changes. We update our Q2 estimates to account for 2Q25 vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployed. We lower our 2Q25 revenue estimate to ~$21B (vs. our prior estimate of $24.1B), to reflect Q2 vehicle deliveries, and a reduction in energy generation and storage revenue. No change to our 2025 and 2026 annual revenue and EPS estimates.
We Expect A Revision to Company Guidance. TSLA previously disclosed plans to revisit its 2025 guidance in its Q2 call, as it continues to assess the impacts of the global trade policy and the macro environment.
For FY25, TSLA is currently guiding its automotive business “to return to growth” (delivered <1.8M vehicles in FY24), and for its Energy Storage and Deployments segment to grow “at least 50% YoY” (grew ~113% yoy last year).
Musk has also previously hinted that the company expects a greater impact of tariffs on its energy business than its automotive business. As a result, we see a likely scenario where TSLA will likely revise down both its Automotive and Energy Storage guidance in Q2.
Where Does Consensus Stand? (see Exhibit 1). Sell-side consensus is expecting 2Q25 revenue of ~$21.8B (Automotive revenues of ~$16B, Energy generation and storage revenue of ~$2.8B, and services and other revenue of ~$3B), GAAP Gross Margin of ~16.6% (in line with our estimate of ~16.6%), GAAP EPS of $0.28, and Non-GAAP Diluted EPS of $0.39. For FCF, Sell-side consensus is expecting $356M.
Latest on Robotaxi – We expect an update from Elon during the call. Recall that on 6/23, TSLA began operating its robotaxi service in Austin, with unsupervised Model Y vehicles carrying select passengers for a flat fee of $4.20 per ride. Initial rides excluded trips to and from the airport, were limited due to inclement weather, and included a Tesla safety monitor sitting in the front passenger seat during the rides.
Additionally, on 6/27, TSLA announced that it had completed its first fully autonomous delivery to a customer, in which a Tesla Model Y drove autonomously from the Austin Gigafactory to the customer’s driveway (approx 30 mins) with zero human intervention.
More recently, on 7/10, TSLA announced its intention to expand its robotaxi driverless taxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area within the “next couple of months,” and to Arizona.
Bloomberg reported that Tesla had contacted Arizona’s Department of Transportation to begin the certification process for its autonomous vehicle ride-sharing service.
We expect a decision on the company’s application over the next few weeks. Remember that Musk has previously stated that the initial robotaxi rollout will comprise of a “modest number of vehicles” at first, before scaling and expanding into other cities.
Tesla is then planning to roll out its Cybercab (no steering wheel or pedals) in 2026. On its Q2 earnings call, we expect Musk to provide an update on the ramp up of its robotaxi fleet in TX, as well as an update on timeline for CA and AZ.
Overall, we continue see Tesla’s Robotaxi segment as a software-as-a-service, high-margin model, and we expect TSLA to have the ability to rapidly scale following commercialization. We continue to believe that TSLA will capture a significant share of the autonomous driving and ride-sharing industries.
Key Questions for the Call:
– How/when does TSLA plans to expand Robotaxi in Austin?
– What are the next steps to launch robotaxi in CA & AZ?
– When does TSLA expect to roll out FSD in China and Europe?
– What is the updated timeline on Tesla’s lower-cost vehicle (previously targeted for 1H25)?
– What Vehicle Demand is expected in 2H25?
– What impact do you expect from Tariffs?
– What is the updated timeline for deliveries of Optimus Bot?
Upcoming Potential Material Catalysts:
Lower-Priced Vehicle: SOP was previously targeted for June, and we await further color on an updated timeline.
FSD Expansion: Rollout in China (2025) and Europe (2H25/1H26 pending regulatory approvals).
Robotaxi Expansion to CA/AZ: We expect 2H25/1H26E
Cybercab: We expect 2026E
Optimus Bot (large-scale production targeted for 2026E, and we expect initial deliveries 2027E), Semi Truck (we expect SOP in 2H26 and commercialization this decade)
Valuation. Our Overweight rating and our $355 PT are unchanged. We arrive at our valuation via a DCF. Key Risks Include: 1) Tariffs, 2) Competition from Chinese OEMs, 3) Regulatory approval for FSD and Robotaxi, 4) Slowdown in EV demand, and 5) Removal of EV tax credit.
This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.
