Cantor Fitzgerald Reaffirms ‘Neutral’ Rating on Rivian
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated on September 15, 2025, a $15 price target on Rivian, with a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.
Takeaways from Lunch with Rivian’s CFO
Last week, we hosted investors for a lunch with Rivian’s CFO.
Key topics of conversation included the upcoming rollout of the R2 platform, the joint venture with Volkswagen (VOW-DE; NC), its DOE loan, higher focus autonomy, and capital needs.
For FY25, Rivian is guiding between 40,000 – 46,000 vehicle deliveries (delivered 51,579 vehicles and produced 49,476 in FY24), and during our meeting RIVN reaffirmed that it expects Q3 to be its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle sales.
Regarding R2, management is targeting Start of Production (SOP) in 1H26, and expects the R2 line to “be less than half the cost of revenues per unit,” relative to the R1 line.Additionally, RIVN expects to commission the new R2 line in 3Q25 and to start validating the equipment and production processes.
Management is still targeting a starting price of ~$45,000 for the lowest trim, although we expect RIVN to first launch with a higher trim version initially.
Latest on the Joint Venture with Volkswagen and loan from the DOE
RIVN previously disclosed that the total deal size of its JV with Volkswagen had increased to $5.8B (from $5B previously).
The ~$5.8B will be split into six components.
In 2Q25, RIVN recognized ~$182M of revenue for the combined performance obligation of the joint venture, and management disclosed that on June 30th, it received the $1B equity investment from VOW.
Management expects to receive up to $2.5B of incremental capital from VOW (expects $1B of equity in 2026), a $1B loan in October 2026, and ~$460M of equity (expected either on Jan 2028 or on first production of a joint vehicle).
Separately, RIVN previously closed its loan agreement with the U.S.
Department of Energy’s (DOE) Loan Programs Office (LPO) for up to $6.6B (includes $6B of principal and ~$600M of capitalized interest) for the build-out of the company’s newer Georgia facility.
Furthermore, we expect the majority of withdrawals to take place in 2026/2027.
A Bigger Focus on Autonomy
During our meeting, management continued to highlight its Rivian Autonomy Platform and emphasized that Autonomy will be a big part of the focus over the next few years.
Rivian’s second-generation platform will be designed around an AI-Centric approach, and the company recently launched hands-free, eyes-on driving for its second-generation vehicles (for highway use-cases).
We expect the company to make ongoing enhancements to its platform throughout 2026, and for the company to schedule an Autonomy day later this year (we expect in December).
Overall, We continue to believe that RIVN benefits from a commercial partnership with Amazon (AMZN, OW, covered by D.
Mathivanan), a strategic joint venture with Volkswagen, and a differentiated product offering (R1, EDVs, & R2).
We continue to view Rivian’s R2 line (1H26) as a meaningful catalyst, and one that should result in higher customer demand, driven by the more competitive price point.
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