Baird Upgrades Tesla to ‘Outperform’ with a $548 Price Target

Baird analyst Ben Kallo upgraded on September 19, 2025, Tesla from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Outperform’ with a price target of $548 (from $320).

“Relatively muted stock reactions following a series of less than stellar quarters and investor inbounds regarding long-term initiatives lead us to believe focus has increasingly shifted to the future for TSLA.

The recently proposed pay package is built on lofty targets for both product rollout and market cap.

In addition to our upgrade, we use this note to illustrate the implications of each milestone on financials and are publishing a hypothetical “pay package” model to frame the opportunity.

Despite three consecutive quarters of missing estimates (or meeting estimates that were revised downward), TSLA is up 10% YTD (vs. the S&P 500 up 13%) and has gained 24% in the last month vs. 3%, respectively.

Maintaining our view that volumes will likely decline again in full-year 2025 and near-term fundamentals will be choppy, we now expect shares to Outperform as TSLA is increasingly viewed as the leader in physical AI.”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.