Cantor Fitzgerald Raises Micron Price Target to $200

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J.

Muse raised the price target on Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) to $200 (from $185) while maintaining an Overweight rating.

“Micron offered an impressive report with November Q guide ($12.5B/ $3.75) well above both consensus $11.9B/$3.10 and buyside expectations of $12.2B/$3.30+.

DRAM remains tight, led by an uplift in Data Center driven demand coupled with more limited capacity additions and very clean inventory both downstream and on Micron’s balance sheet.

Moreover, HBM continues to ramp (reaching ~$8B annual run rate in the Q) with strong growth expected into CY26 led by both HBM 3E/4, while it appears AI inference has only added to the tightness in the last 4-6 weeks.

Moving to NAND, higher Data Center mix combined with improving industry conditions has led to ongoing recovery (GMs 15% in Aug Q, we see growing to 25% in Nov Q), aided also in part by HDD supply storage adding incrementally to the hyperscale eSSD story at Micron.

The big driver of earnings upside was GMs, guided to 51.5% or +579bps Q/Q and 630bps above consensus.

Here we highlight mgmt expectations for mix, higher ASPs, and cost downs, ALL driving the improvement.

Beyond the near term, we highlight expectations for sustained tightness in DRAM demand supported by more limited capacity additions and more and more incremental bits pushed to the HBM market, where we see a 4-5x trade ratio with the move to HBM4.

Put it all together, and this was a very solid report with consensus estimates likely moving materially higher – we now model $17.50 in EPS for CY26E vs. consensus of $14.51 coming in (and stretch goal approaching $20 not out of the question in a sustained tight DRAM environment for all of CY26).

We note mgmt did highlight that pricing and volume for HBM3E, as well as HBM4, for a vast majority of its customers is largely set for all of CY26 (with expectations to finalize in the coming months), potentially alleviating some concerns around Samsung getting qualified at NVDA for HBM4.

As for positives, Micron expects HBM to be in shortage for all of CY26, sustaining elevated ASPs and margins, and we readily agree (we model HBM market of $50B in CY26E with Micron securing 25% share).

But, until we have clarity here, this will be an ongoing investor concern.

Finally, it is worth highlighting guided net Capex of $18B in FY26 (vs. $13.8B in FY25), perhaps at the high end of buyside expectations of $16-18B but a number that makes sense given the company will add both equipment to recently installed clean room space (i.e., Japan and Taiwan) while also adding more clean room space (Idaho) to support growth into 2HCY27 and beyond.

All in all, a solid report. Shares now trade less than 10x our new CY26 EPS estimate and ~8x stretch goal EPS – still cheap in our view, considering the current robust backdrop for AI.

We reiterate our Overweight rating and raise our price target to $200 (11.5x our updated CY26 EPS estimate; prior $185 equated to 11.8x upside case of $15.60).”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.