Cantor Reiterates Overweight Rating on Tesla
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reaffirmed on October 21, 2025, Tesla’s ‘Overweight’ rating and $355 price target.
“Tesla Reports Q3 this Wednesday (10/22) and will host its earnings call at 5:30 PM ET.
In Q3, Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles, significantly above sell-side consensus of 443,079, and above 462,890 in 3Q24 (and its highest in company history).
Of the total vehicles delivered, 481,166 were Model 3/Y and 15,933 comprised the other models (Model S, Model X, Cybertruck).
This was due primarily to a “push-forward effect” from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on 9/30.
YTD, Tesla has now delivered and produced ~1.2M vehicles globally, and we expect a weaker Q4.
For FY25, we expect fewer deliveries than FY24 (~1.8M).
Separately, Tesla also pre-announced that it had produced 447,450 vehicles in 3Q25,below Visible Alpha consensus of 468,528 vehicles.
Energy Storage Beat and Highest on Record
On 10/2, Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history, vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24).
Tesla’s Energy storage product YTD has surpassed all of FY24’s deployment, and we continue to expect Energy storage to generate >$11B in total annual revenue.
Introduction of Long-Awaited Lower-Priced Vehicles Comes at an Opportunistic Time
Tesla recently unveiled “Standard” variants of the company’s Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, which are lower-priced trims for consumers.
The new Model 3 Standard comes with a starting price of $36,990, while the Model Y Standard starts at $39,990 in the U.S.
These models strip back or simplify several features, such as Autosteer, adaptive high beams, and premium interior extras to hit a lower price bracket.
Additionally, the vehicles scaled back slightly on range and performance, with the Standard Model 3 having ~321 miles of range (vs. ~363 miles on Premium Model 3) and the Standard Model Y having ~321 miles of range (vs. ~357 on Premium Model Y).
Still, we believe the timing of these introductions is significant, and we believe the new Model 3 and Model Y Standards can help meaningfully stimulate demand by attracting budget-conscious buyers after the recent removal of the $7,500 tax credit on 9/30.
Q3 Key Financial Items – What to Look for. For Q3, Sell-Side Consensus is Expecting Revenue of ~$27.8B, GAAP Gross Margin of 17.4%, and Adj. EPS of $0.59.
Above all, we will be focusing on Elon’s commentary, particularly updates on the timing of several upcoming key material potential near-term catalysts, including: continued rollout of Robotaxi in Texas and California, ramp up of the Model 3/Y standard (lower-cost vehicle), FSD adoption in China and Europe, launch of the cybercab in 2026, and an update on the timeline for its humanoid Optimus Bot.
A $1T Tesla Pay Package for Elon Musk
On 9/5, Tesla’s Board reportedly proposed a new 10-year compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk that could be worth up to ~$1T, contingent on ambitious performance goals.
The package ties Musk’s potential payout to both market capitalization milestones, requiring Tesla to reach an $8.5T valuation (vs. current market cap of ~$1T), and key operational targets.
For Musk to receive the package, he will have to remain at Tesla for at least 7.5 years, and 10 years to earn the full amount.
Elon will also have to meet several key operational milestones, including: overseeing the commercial deployment of 1 million autonomous taxis and the deployment of 1 million robots, according to Bloomberg.
If achieved, Musk would gain up to 12% additional ownership in Tesla.
Separately, on 9/15, Musk disclosed that he had purchased ~2.57M TSLA shares (first time in five years), with the total transaction valued at ~$1B which, in our view, reaffirms his commitment to remaining TSLA’s CEO for the foreseeable future, and to help transform the company from EVs toward robotics and AI.
Upcoming Potential Material Catalysts
- FSD Expansion – Rollout in China (2025) and Europe (expected 2H25, pending approvals)
- Annual Shareholder Meeting – November 6
- Robotaxi Expansion – 4Q25-1H26
- Introduction of Cybercab – 2026
- Optimus Bot (large-scale production 2026E, and we expect initial deliveries 2027E)
- Semi Truck (we expect 2026E and for TSLA to enter the self-driving trucking industry, and Energy Storage growth)
Key Questions for the Call:
- How have Robotaxis performed so far, and what are the relevant metrics (fleet size, cumulative miles, and territories you expect in Q4 and 2026?
- What is the latest on the Optimus robot and updated timeline for deliveries of Optimus Bot?
- What are expansion plans for the Megapack, Powerwall, and energy storage systems both nationally and abroad?
- When does TSLA expect to roll out FSD in Europe and a broader rollout in China?
- When will FSD allow for unsupervised driving?
- When/Is TSLA planning on entering the self-driving trucking industry?
Valuation
Our Overweight rating and 12-month $355 PT on TSLA are unchanged, pending a full model update.
In our estimates, we lower our FY25 and FY26 total vehicle deliveries to ~1.61M/~1.86M, from prior ~1.66M/~1.98M, respectively, resulting in FY25/FY26 total revenue of $94.4B/$107.8B, from prior $96.4B/$115.5B, respectively.
We arrive at our valuation via a 10-year bottom-up DCF approach.
Key Risks Include
- Tariffs
- Competition from Chinese OEMs
- Regulatory approval for FSD and Robotaxi
- Slowdown in EV demand
- Removal of EV tax credit”
This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.
