UBS Affirms Buy on NVIDIA, $235 Price Target

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating and $235 price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA).

“Reuters reported today that the US Commerce Department is considering allowing Nvidia to export Hopper H200s to China, while exports of Blackwell generation are likely off the table for now.

We are not particularly surprised as we discussed in our previous notes (here and here) that it was likely that negotiations on NVDA shipments will continue given China AI compute market opportunity and limited internal supply.

Moreover, an approval for NVDA would just even the playing field, given that at its last earnings call AMD already discussed receiving some MI308 licenses, although no shipments were factored into DecQ guide.

Last week, AMD confirmed securing licenses to ship MI308s and discussed a potential 15% tax due to the US government on the China shipments.

We previously estimated the domestic China AI market at ~2MM units and NVDA estimated China TAM at $50B/yr in C2025.

Based on estimates from the US government (here and here), we continue to believe that domestic alternatives may only be able to supply something in the range of $10B or ~20% of the total market, while remaining ~80% to be supplied by global vendors (NVDA, AMD).”

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