Jefferies Keeps Microsoft’s $490 Price Target

1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Buy
Unchanged
Target
$490
from $675 (−27%)
Outcome
Reached
on December 10, 2025
Jefferies and Microsoft logos

What the analyst said

Maintained a Buy rating and $490 price target

“We’re bullish on OpenAI’s hire of Denise Dresser, CEO of Slack, as an ideal CRO with the experience (14 yrs @ CRM) needed to scale its enterprise business.

Also, OpenAI published a report exploring AI use in its enterprise customers.

While still early, we expect OpenAI to make a significant enterprise push in 2026, unlocking a major tactical opportunity for MSFT (27% owner, rev-share, cloud & IP rights) and benefiting ORCL & CRWV w/ high OAI backlog exposure.

We’re bullish on OpenAI’s hire of Denise Dresser, former CEO of Slack, to be its new CRO.

With over 14 years at Salesforce and extensive experience leading enterprise initiatives, Denise brings the expertise and network needed to build and scale OpenAI’s enterprise motion.

OpenAI Enterprise Business Growing Faster Than Consumer!

In Nov., OpenAI CFO highlighted enterprise sales now at ~40% of revenue (up from 30% at the start of the year), implying faster growth than consumer.

OpenAI now has 1M+ business customers (broader than just ChatGPT for Enterprise, includes API consumption).

Notably, 7M ChatGPT for Work seats (+40% in prior 2 months vs Nov.), with Enterprise Seats up 9x yoy.

We expect OpenAI to lean into enterprise in 2026 & beyond, given strong traction.

MSFT remains a net beneficiary – 27% owner, revenue-share partner, CSP – despite competing SKUs (M365 Copilot, GitHub Copilot).

MSFT’s early lands and distribution (>430M paid M365 seats) should outweigh overlap.

ORCL & CRWV stand to benefit, with heavy backlog exposure to OpenAI, should benefit from OpenAI’s traction in enterprise.”

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Where the price stands

MSFT trades at $531. The 28 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $515 to $750, with a median of $630. This $490 target is 22% below the median, the lowest on the Street.

Since the note MSFT has moved +8% (from $492). 12-month window: day 332 of 365, closes on December 10, 2026.

Track record

This call✓ Target reached on December 10, 2025, 0 days after the note.

Firm track recordJefferies: 62% of its 21 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#23 of 26 firms). Accuracy ranking →

Jefferies on Microsoft

Jefferies price targets on Microsoft

4 calls from May 1, 2025 to January 4, 2026. The target went from $550 to $675 (+23%). The rating stayed Buy.

Jefferies targetMSFT share price
  1. January 4, 2026Target raised from $490 (+38%)Buy$675
  2. December 10, 2025 This noteTarget cut from $675 (−27%)Buy$490
  3. November 24, 2025Target raised from $550 (+23%)Buy$675
  4. May 1, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$550
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.