Cantor Reiterates Rivian’s Neutral Rating After Autonomy Day

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated on December 12, 2025, a $15 price target on Rivian, with a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.

“On 12/11, we attended Rivian’s Autonomy and AI Day in Palo Alto, CA.

At the event, RIVN unveiled its own artificial intelligence chip (designed to replace Nvidia), its AI-driven Autonomous platform, and outlined its roadmap ahead of commercial launch.

Throughout the presentations and lab tours, we held conversations with R.J. Scaringe, Rivian’s CEO and founder, Claire McDonough (CFO), other members of the management team, and institutional investors.

We also conducted a demo-ride of Rivian’s hands-off autonomous technology, which took place within public roads near the company’s offices in Palo-Alto.

This demo ride included a safety driver in the driver seat but required no human intervention.

Rivian’s shares are up ~15% intraday.

Our Thoughts – Cantor’s Take

We came away very encouraged from Rivian’s AI and Autonomy Day.

Overall we see Rivian’s AI and customer focus autonomous approach as a way for Rivian to: materially boost customer demand, improve the unit economics of the business, mitigate some of the impact of the EV tax credit removal, and potentially take some of Tesla’s (TSLA, OW) EV market share in North America.

Rivian’s autonomy capabilities will be rolled out in phases, starting with “hands-free” autonomy later this month, followed by “Eyes-off” towards the end of FY26, and ultimately culminate in full level 4 point-to-point autonomy.

Rivian’s fully autonomous system will be equipped with 11 cameras, 5 radars, and 1 LiDAR, and will be available on >3.5M miles of roads in North America, and capable of operating on highways and on roads with defined painted lines, according to management.

Prior to the implementation of Lidar into Rivian’s vehicles (we expect 3Q26 following R2 launch), Rivian will launch its Autonomy+ subscription for a one time fee of $2,500 (or for $49.99/month).

At this price point, which represents a significant discount to Tesla’s FSD priced at ~$8,000 (or $99/month), we expect Rivian’s customer demand to grow materially starting in 2026 as a result of these increased autonomy features for consumers.

Separately, Rivian also introduced its Rivian Assistant, a new voice interface which will connect the vehicle systems with third-party apps, and that management expects to launch in 1H26 for its Gen 1 and Gen 2 R1 vehicles, and upcoming R2 vehicles.

In conclusion, we continue to believe that RIVN benefits from a differentiated product offering (R1, EDVs, & R2), a strong commercial partnership with Amazon, and a strategic joint venture with Volkswagen.

We are encouraged by the company’s autonomy strategy and features, and while we remain Neutral-rated in the near-term (we expect a weaker Q4), we see several material near-term catalysts in 2026 which could present an attractive entry point for investors.

We do not make changes to our model at this time.

Rivian’s Near-Term Potential Catalysts

• December 2025: Launch of Hands-Free Autonomous Feature
• January 2026: Q4 Vehicle Production/Delivery Pre-announcement
• March 2026: Autonomy+ Subscription Official Launch (following 3 month free trial)
• 1H26: R2 Start of Production
• 3Q26: Initial R2 Customer Deliveries
• 2H26: RAP1 Chip Deployment
• 2H26E: Autonomy+ Eyes Off Launch

R2 Line On-Track for 1H26 – Material Catalyst

Management reaffirmed that Start of Production (SOP) for its upcoming R2 vehicle lines remains on-track for 1H26, and we expect initial customer deliveries in 3Q26.

Management previously disclosed an initial R2 annual production capacity of 155,000 vehicles, and a starting price of $45,000 for the lowest trim, (although we expect RIVN to first launch with a higher trim version).

Additionally, management expects the R2 line to “be less than half the cost of revenues per unit,” relative to the R1 line.

We expect R2 will help to materially boost sales (given the competitive price point and the upcoming autonomy features), and we see this as the most material catalyst for FY26.

Joint Venture with Volkswagen – No Additional Commentary at AI Day

RIVN’s total deal size of its joint venture with Volkswagen stands at $5.8B, which will be split into six components.

Rivian received $1B equity investment from VOW in June, and in 3Q25, RIVN disclosed it recognized ~$214M of revenue (within Software and Services) from the JV.

For 2026, management expects to receive $1B of equity from VOW, a $1B loan in October, followed by ~$460M of equity (expected either on Jan 2028 or on first production of a joint vehicle).

There was no discussion of integrating Rivian’s autonomous technology with Volkswagen during the AI and Autonomy day, but we do see some potential opportunities down the line.

FY25 Vehicle Delivery Guidance Unchanged

RIVN is targeting FY25 deliveries between 41,500-43,500, (includes EDVs).

In 3Q25 the company reported revenue of $1,558M, which was above Visible Alpha consensus of ~$1,487M, after delivering 13,201 vehicles (and producing 10,720 vehicles).

Separately, the company is guiding FY25 Capex of $1,800M – $1,900M and FY25 Adj. EBITDA of ($2,000M) – ($2,250M), after reporting an Adj. EBITDA loss of ($602M) in 3Q25.

We expect the company to pre-announce its Q4 vehicles delivered on Jan 2(nd).

Liquidity Refresher

RIVN reported ~$7.1B in cash, equivalents, and ST investments as of 3Q25.

Net cash generated from operating activities in 3Q25 was ~$26M, vs. ($876M) in 3Q24, and 3Q25 capex was $447M.

RIVN’s total liquidity is ~$7,686M as of 3Q25 (vs. ~$8.5B in 2Q25), including the capacity under the company’s asset-based revolving credit facility.

Separately, recall that RIVN previously closed its loan agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Loan Programs Office (LPO) for up to $6.6B (includes $6B of principal and ~$600M of capitalized interest).

This will be used for the build-out of the company’s newer Georgia facility, and we expect the majority of withdrawals to take place in 2026/2027.

Valuation

Our Neutral Rating and our 12-Month $15 PT on RIVN are unchanged.

We do not make changes to our model at this time.

We arrive at our $15 PT via a bottom-up, 10-year DCF.

Key risks include

• the implementation of new tariffs,
• continued supply-chain disruptions,
• manufacturing constraints,
• a highly competitive market,
• and slower customer adoption.”

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