Cantor Reiterates $15 Price Target on Rivian
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated on January 2, 2026, a $15 price target on Rivian, with a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock.
“Rivian Pre-Announces 4Q25 Deliveries Below Consensus and Production In-Line
On 1/2, RIVN pre-announced that it delivered 9,745 vehicles in 4Q25, below our estimates/Visible Alpha Consensus of 9,998/10,086 vehicles, (and below 14,183 in 4Q24).
Additionally, RIVN also pre-announced that it produced 10,974 vehicles in 4Q25, above our estimate/Visible Alpha Consensus of 10,690/9,544 vehicles, (and below 12,727 in 4Q24).
For FY25, RIVN delivered 42,247 vehicles, within company guidance of 41,500-43,500 vehicles and in-line with our estimate of 42,500 (though below 51,579 vehicles in FY24).
In FY25, RIVN produced 42,284 vehicles, above our estimate/Visible Alpha Consensus of 42,000/40,854 vehicles(and below 49,476 vehicles in FY24).
What’s Next?
RIVN will report 4Q25/FY25 earnings on 2/12 after the market close and host its earnings call at 5:00 PM ET.
Valuation
Our Neutral rating and our 12-month $15 PT are unchanged pending a model update.
We arrive at our $15 PT via a bottom-up, 10-year DCF.
Key Risks include:
- continued supply chain disruptions,
- manufacturing constraints,
- high cost-of-goods sold,
- highly competitive market, and
- slower-than-expected customer adoption.”
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