Morgan Stanley Maintains $12 Price Target on Rivian
- Rating
- Underweight
- Unchanged
- Target
- $12
- Unchanged
- Outcome
- Reached
- on October 23, 2026
What the analyst said
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco reiterated on January 5, 2026, an ‘Underweight’ rating and $12 price target on Rivian.
“RIVN delivered 9,745 vehicles in 4Q25 (-31% y/y) vs MSe at 9,525 and cons at 10,100.
For the full year, Rivian produced and delivered, 42,284 (-15% Y/Y) and 42,247 vehicles (-18% Y/Y), respectively, which is in line with its guidance.
All eyes are now on 4Q25 earnings (reporting 2/12/26) and 2026 guidance, particularly the ramp of R2.
We maintain our cautious view on demand in 2026 following the expiration of the EV tax credit and the evolving tech hardware roadmap, with the introduction of LiDAR in late 2026 for advanced levels of autonomy, which may yield a demand air-pocket for most of 2026 as customers wait for RIVN’s latest gen tech platform.”
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Where the price stands
RIVN trades at $13.61. The 11 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $10 to $23, with a median of $18. This $12 target is 33% below the median.
Since the note RIVN has moved −31% (from $19.71). 12-month window: day 308 of 365, closes on January 2, 2027.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on October 23, 2026, 10 months after the note. Same target as this firm’s December 8, 2025 note, so it is scored there.
Firm track recordMorgan Stanley: 82% of its 50 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#8 of 26 firms). Accuracy ranking →
Morgan Stanley on Rivian
Morgan Stanley price targets on Rivian
7 calls from August 12, 2025 to October 30, 2026. The target went from $12 to $13 (+8%). The rating moved from Hold to Sell.
- October 30, 2026Target cut from $14 (−7%)Sell$13
- July 31, 2026Target raised from $13 (+8%)Sell$14
- July 14, 2026Target raised from $12 (+8%)Sell$13
- March 19, 2026Kept the $12 targetSell$12
- January 2, 2026 This noteKept the $12 targetSell$12
- December 8, 2025Downgraded to Sell, kept the $12 targetSell$12
- August 12, 2025Earliest call shownHold$12
