Morgan Stanley Maintains $12 Price Target on Rivian

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco reiterated on January 5, 2026, an ‘Underweight’ rating and $12 price target on Rivian.

“RIVN delivered 9,745 vehicles in 4Q25 (-31% y/y) vs MSe at 9,525 and cons at 10,100.

For the full year, Rivian produced and delivered, 42,284 (-15% Y/Y) and 42,247 vehicles (-18% Y/Y), respectively, which is in line with its guidance.

All eyes are now on 4Q25 earnings (reporting 2/12/26) and 2026 guidance, particularly the ramp of R2.

We maintain our cautious view on demand in 2026 following the expiration of the EV tax credit and the evolving tech hardware roadmap, with the introduction of LiDAR in late 2026 for advanced levels of autonomy, which may yield a demand air-pocket for most of 2026 as customers wait for RIVN’s latest gen tech platform.”

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