Aletheia Capital Upgrades ASML to Buy
Since this note+74% ASML $1,069.86 → $1,861.20 (Oct 2) · target reached
Aletheia Capital analyst Warren Lau upgraded ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) from Sell to Buy with a price target of $1,500.00 (from $750.00).
“We upgrade ASML to Buy with a revised target price of €1,250/$1,500 ADR on 30x FY27E PER from Sell (TP: €640/$750) as we raised FY26E/27E EPS estimates significantly to factor in a new wave of investment expansions and capacity upgrades.
We think the upsides will be driven by stronger EUV demand from DRAM suppliers, resilient DUV orders from China in FY26E, and critically, a potential surge in TSMC demand in FY27E.
We think TSMC alone could install 40–45 EUV tools as it may expand advanced capacity by 40–50% in 2027E, potentially lifting total EUV units to 75–80 units, near ASML’s full capacity.
As such, we now expect Low-NA EUV revenue to rise by one-third in FY26E and further accelerate by 50–60% in FY27E, supported by higher volumes and a richer product mix.
Hence, we forecast ASML’s overall sales growth in the mid-teens for FY26E, accelerating to the mid-twenties in FY27E—both are well ahead of its guidance and consensus forecasts.”
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