Bernstein Reiterates Outperform Rating on ASML (January 16)

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai reiterated an Outperform rating and $1,528.00 price target on ASML (NASDAQ: ASML).

“Reiterate Outperform and Top Pick; Yesterday (Jan 15th), TSMC smashed market expectations with a strong capex guidance of $52-56bn.

This is great news for all semi equipment names, and especially for ASML given the high litho intensity in advanced logic. We quantify the implications for ASML. Strong TSMC capex guidance.

TSMC 2026 capex guidance of $52-56bn, up 32% YoY from 2025 capex of $40.8bn at the midpoint (Exhibit 1). Revenue guidance is 30% YoY, so the capex intensity remains high at 33%.

The allocation to advanced logic increased to 70-80% (up from 70%) last year.

This is offset by the decreased allocation to equipment, as TSMC needs to accelerate the build out of new clean rooms in anticipation to stronger capacity needs in 2028/2029.

We conclude that 1. advanced logic equipment growth in 2026 is strong at around 30%; 2. equipment demand will further accelerate in 2028/29 when the new clean rooms are ready to be filled with equipments.”

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