What the analyst said
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai reiterated an Outperform rating and $1,528.00 price target on ASML (NASDAQ: ASML).
“Reiterate Outperform and Top Pick; Yesterday (Jan 15th), TSMC smashed market expectations with a strong capex guidance of $52-56bn.
This is great news for all semi equipment names, and especially for ASML given the high litho intensity in advanced logic. We quantify the implications for ASML. Strong TSMC capex guidance.
TSMC 2026 capex guidance of $52-56bn, up 32% YoY from 2025 capex of $40.8bn at the midpoint (Exhibit 1). Revenue guidance is 30% YoY, so the capex intensity remains high at 33%.
The allocation to advanced logic increased to 70-80% (up from 70%) last year.
This is offset by the decreased allocation to equipment, as TSMC needs to accelerate the build out of new clean rooms in anticipation to stronger capacity needs in 2028/2029.
We conclude that 1. advanced logic equipment growth in 2026 is strong at around 30%; 2. equipment demand will further accelerate in 2028/29 when the new clean rooms are ready to be filled with equipments.”
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Where the price stands
ASML trades at $1,357. The 2 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $2,100 to $2,350, with a median of $2,225. This $1,528 target is 31% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note ASML has moved +2% (from $1,332). 12-month window: day 293 of 365, closes on January 16, 2027.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on May 6, 2026, 4 months after the note. Same target as this firm’s January 4, 2026 note, so it is scored there.
Firm track recordBernstein: 79% of its 24 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#14 of 26 firms). Accuracy ranking →
Bernstein on ASML
Bernstein price targets on ASML
8 calls from January 4, 2026 to July 16, 2026. The target went from $1,528 to $2,859 (+87%). The rating stayed Buy.
- July 16, 2026Target raised from $2,623 (+9%)Buy$2,859
- July 6, 2026Target raised from $1,971 (+33%)Buy$2,623
- March 26, 2026Target raised from $1,911 (+3%)Buy$1,971
- January 29, 2026Target raised from $1,642 (+16%)Buy$1,911
- January 26, 2026Kept the $1,642 targetBuy$1,642
- January 22, 2026Target raised from $1,528 (+7%)Buy$1,642
- January 16, 2026 This noteKept the $1,528 targetBuy$1,528
- January 4, 2026Earliest call shownBuy$1,528
