What the analyst said

Aletheia Capital analyst Warren Lau lowered the price target on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to $205.00 (from $215.00) while maintaining a Sell rating.

“We believe Apple’s hardware margins have peaked and face pressure unless the company raises prices or intensifies supplier negotiations.

Memory costs are set to triple YoY in C1Q26E, with further escalation likely in C2Q26E.

We estimate the memory budget for the iPhone 17 will surge 80–100% sequentially in 2Q26E, followed by an additional 30–40% QoQ increase in 3Q26E, as Apple replenishes depleted inventories through January supplier renegotiations.

Consequently, we project iPhone17’s BOM will rise 500–600bps in 2Q26E, compressing the gross margin by ~400bps, with a further ~250bps contraction in 3Q26E.

Other hardware lines may suffer an even greater margin squeeze given their structurally lower profitability.

In parallel, Apple is accelerating R&D investment—up 25–30% YoY—focused on AI deployment, which could dilute operating leverage. Despite these headwinds, iPhone 17 demand remains robust.

We have trimmed EPS forecast and cut our target price to $205 (SOTP) from $215.”

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Where the price stands

AAPL trades at $337. The 16 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $250 to $400, with a median of $358. This $205 target is 43% below the median, the lowest on the Street.

Since the note AAPL has moved +32% (from $256). 12-month window: day 286 of 365, closes on January 20, 2027.

Track record

This callOpen: AAPL has not reached $205 yet. This 12-month target is scored on January 20, 2027.

Firm track recordToo early to score Aletheia Capital: price targets are 12-month calls and fewer than 5 of its targets are a year old. 4 of its 14 open targets have already been reached. How we score

Aletheia Capital on Apple

Aletheia Capital price targets on Apple

2 calls from January 20, 2026 to April 21, 2026. The target went from $205 to $215 (+5%). The rating stayed Sell.

Aletheia Capital targetAAPL share price
  1. April 21, 2026Target raised from $205 (+5%)Sell$215
  2. January 20, 2026 This noteEarliest call shownSell$205
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Other analysts on Apple

BernsteinBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 29 $370maintained EvercoreBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 27 $380maintained UBSHold Kept rating and price target Oct 20 $296maintained Loop CapitalHold Downgraded, cut price target −11% Oct 20 $330from $370 KeyBancSell Kept rating and price target Oct 19 $250maintained
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.