What the analyst said
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai reiterated an Outperform rating and $1,642.00 price target on ASML (NASDAQ: ASML).
“Will there be capacity constraint? ASML will soon report earnings on Wednesday 28th of January. We preview here with the latest data points and buy side expectations.
We believe results are likely to beat, but order strength is more important. Import data suggests ASML could report EUR 9.7Bn in revenue, vs Cons 9.5Bn.
Of note: strong import from China at EUR 3.27Bn in Q4, the highest level on record.
However, it’s more important to watch the 4Q booking number as it is the last booking they will report.
We expect a very strong quarter as both advanced logic (TSMC) and DRAM raised their 2026 expectations in 4Q25.
Further, we believe China has also put in a big order to support their leading edge expansion (ASML: Don’t forget DUV).
Buy side expectations for booking has gone up to at least €8bn but we think there is upside.”
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Where the price stands
ASML trades at $1,425. The 2 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $2,100 to $2,350, with a median of $2,225. This $1,642 target is 26% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note ASML has moved +3% (from $1,389). 12-month window: day 286 of 365, closes on January 26, 2027.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on June 2, 2026, 4 months after the note. Same target as this firm’s January 22, 2026 note, so it is scored there.
Firm track recordBernstein: 80% of its 25 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#11 of 26 firms). Accuracy ranking →
Bernstein on ASML
Bernstein price targets on ASML
8 calls from January 4, 2026 to July 16, 2026. The target went from $1,528 to $2,859 (+87%). The rating stayed Buy.
- July 16, 2026Target raised from $2,623 (+9%)Buy$2,859
- July 6, 2026Target raised from $1,971 (+33%)Buy$2,623
- March 26, 2026Target raised from $1,911 (+3%)Buy$1,971
- January 29, 2026Target raised from $1,642 (+16%)Buy$1,911
- January 26, 2026 This noteKept the $1,642 targetBuy$1,642
- January 22, 2026Target raised from $1,528 (+7%)Buy$1,642
- January 16, 2026Kept the $1,528 targetBuy$1,528
- January 4, 2026Earliest call shownBuy$1,528
