What the analyst said
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh lowered the price target on Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM) to $170.00 (from $200.00) while maintaining an Overweight rating.
“Strong Results Given Strong Smartphone/Cloud, While Memory Expected to Temper Handset Royalty Growth; ARM posted strong F3Q (Dec) results and guided F4Q (Mar) higher as royalties and licensing beat.
Royalty growth was driven by strong smartphone demand given higher royalties from CSS adoption and Armv9 and Data Center, which is approaching 20% of royalties, with DC expected to reach 50% of royalties exiting F28/F29 and overtake handsets.
Mgt is acknowledging memory pricing/ shortages will likely impact Handset royalty growth but will be more resilient with 15-20% unit decline impacting handset royalties by 2-4%.
As such we’re adjusting F26E, lowering our F27 ests and trim PT to $170. Remain OW.”
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Where the price stands
ARM trades at $206. The 2 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $320 to $641, with a median of $481. This $170 target is 65% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note ARM has moved +96% (from $105). 12-month window: day 270 of 365, closes on February 5, 2027.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on April 20, 2026, 2 months after the note.
Firm track recordKeyBanc: 88% of its 16 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#8 of 21 firms). Accuracy ranking →
KeyBanc on Arm
KeyBanc price targets on Arm
3 calls from February 5, 2026 to July 14, 2026. The target went from $170 to $430 (+153%). The rating stayed Buy.
- July 14, 2026Target raised from $300 (+43%)Buy$430
- May 7, 2026Target raised from $170 (+76%)Buy$300
- February 5, 2026 This noteEarliest call shownBuy$170
