Bernstein Raises ASML Price Target to $1,971

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai raised the price target on ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) to $1,971.00 (from $1,911.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

“Based on our estimates, the DRAM capacity build-out accelerates from 145k additional wafers per month in 2025 to 245k in 2026, and further accelerates to 330/435k in 2027/28.

During 2026-2028, the top 3 DRAM makers are adding around 1mn monthly wafer capacity for equipment, bringing the industry capacity to 2.58mn wafers per month. This brings significant growth to ASML.

We estimate that for every 100k greenfield DRAM capacity requires 6 EUV machines for 1c node, and probably will require 7-8 in 1d node.

Upgrades from 1a to 1c would require 3 EUV machines for every 100k capacity.

Based on the capacity additions, we forecast ASML to ship 44 EUV machines to DRAM in 2028, representing 45% of ASML’s EUV shipment.

This is more than double from 18 units in 2025, or 34% of ASML’s EUV shipment then. We raise ASML EUV shipment in 2028 from 79 to 92 units, and EPS from EUR 45.3 to 50.4.

PT is raised to €1,700 (from €1,600) based on the same 40x multiple. ASML remains our top pick for the EU Semis sector.”

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