Cantor Reiterates Overweight on Tesla

Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight rating on Tesla (TSLA) on June 29, 2026, in a mobility industry update from analyst Andres Sheppard previewing Tesla’s Q2 production and delivery pre-announcement expected this week.

“In Q1, Tesla (TSLA, OW) reported a 1Q26 top-line, gross-margin and bottom-line beat.

TSLA’s 1Q FCF was particularly encouraging after the company reported 1Q26 FCF of $1,444M, a material beat vs. consensus (-$1,780M).

Nonetheless, on its 1Q call, TSLA disclosed a revised FY26 capex guide of >$25B (vs. prior $20B), a material step-up from ~$8.5B in FY25, and the company now expects negative FCF for the rest of 2026.

Still, TSLA recently reaffirmed that its Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 all remain on track for volume production this year, and we view these as material catalysts.

Separately, last quarter, TSLA disclosed that its first-generation production line for its humanoid robot (Optimus) is currently being installed in CA (management targeting an annual production capacity of 1M Optimus Robots).

Additionally, TSLA is also preparing a second-generation production line (in Gigafactory Texas), which management is targeting for (long-term) annual production capacity of 10M robots.

We expect production of Optimus Gen 3 to ramp up in Fremont in late July/August 2026, with the second higher-volume factory under construction at Giga Texas targeting an SOP in the summer of 2027.

For Q2, we conservatively expect deliveries of 397,414 vehicles (below sell-side compiled consensus of 408,609), and we expect Q2 energy storage deployments of 15.7 GWh, (above consensus of 13.9 GW).

More importantly, we continue to expect FY26 to be a transformational year for the company as it transitions into autonomy, AI, robotics, and chips.

Upcoming Potential Material Catalysts include: Robotaxi Market Expansion – 1H26; Tesla Roadster Unveil (we expect 3Q26); Broader FSD (supervised) Rollout in China: We expect 2H26; Rollout of FSD (supervised) in Europe: We expect 2H26 (pending regulatory approval); Rollout of Cybercab – 2H26; Semi Truck (we expect SOP in 2Q26E); and Optimus Bot (we expect initial deliveries in 2H27E).”

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