TD Cowen Raises Lam Research Price Target to $400

TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar raised the price target on Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) to $400 (from $340).

“While we expect strong quarterly results & guide, most investors are looking into 2028 WFE for semicaps.

We model $250B WFE in 2028 and potentially $400B WFE by 2030 based on industry EBITDA, particularly memory where fab ROI is at >3x better Vs prior cycles and demand is committed via “take or pay” agreements.

Under a $250B WFE scenario we believe AMAT’s earnings could approach $25, up 1.9x from our CY26 EPS estimate of $13.35, LRCX potentially $11-12, compared to our estimate of $6.67 in CY26 and KLAC upwards of $9-10 EPS at a potential $250B WFE scenario.

We see AMAT as the primary beneficiary under this scenario followed by KLAC due to their higher relative exposure to the fastest growing areas of leading-edge F/L and DRAM spending.

At a $400B WFE scenario we estimate low $40 earnings power for AMAT, ~$20 EPS possible for LRCX and mid-teens EPS for KLAC.

To reach a $400B WFE level we would expect a major turnaround in NAND spending in addition to continued strength at the leading edge and DRAM.

The relatively higher growth rate in NAND during the later part of the decade would shift the favor towards LRCX’s dep/etch business.”

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