BofA Securities Reiterates Buy on ASML, €2,022 PT

BofA Securities analyst Didier Scemama reiterated a Buy rating and EUR2,022 price target on ASML Holding NV (ASML:NA) (NASDAQ: ASML).

“For 3Q26, ASML expects sales of €11,500mn, 10.9% above VA cons of €10,367mn, and a gross margin of 56.0% versus 52.1% cons.

R&D + SG&A is guided to €1,600mn, broadly in line with VA cons of €1,586mn, implying 3Q26 EBIT of €4,840mn, 26.3% above cons of €3,831mn.

The guidance implies 4Q26 revenue of €14,407mn versus cons of €11,615mn, with gross profit of €8,080mn at a 56% gross margin versus €6,109mn and 53% in cons.

ASML now expects 2026 net sales of €43-45bn (midpoint €44.0bn), 11.2% above VA cons of €39.6bn, and gross margins of 54-55% versus 52.4% cons, implying a 17% gross profit beat.

This compares with prior guidance of €36-40bn net sales and 51-53% gross margins.

ASML plans to increase EUV capacity by 30% from the ’26 level of 65 systems to 85 systems in ’27 and a further 30% capacity expansion for ’28, implying capacity of c110 systems.

We forecast 88 EUV shipments in ’27 and 105 shipments in ’28. Similarly, ASML plans to increase DUV capacity by 30% in ’27/’28 from 130 systems in ’26 implying 169/220 units (vs BofA 159/173 units).

In addition, management highlighted that High-NA EUV has entered volume production at Intel Foundry for Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors.

ASML highlighted a robust end-market outlook, forecasting 25% logic growth in 2026, driven by strong 2nm demand and 1.4nm pull-in (positive ASM), alongside 75% growth in memory sales.

China to represent c.20% of group sales, above prior expectations, led by stronger logic-related demand.”

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