Needham Raises Taiwan Semi Price Target to $530

Needham analyst Charles Shi raised the price target on Taiwan Semi (NYSE: TSM) to $530 (from $480) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“We are updating our AI Wafer Demand Model (refreshed very six months) and dialing in TSMC’s recent earnings results into our TSMC company model.

With this note, we are also rolling our TSMC estimates forward to 2028. We forecast TSMC to deliver 40% and 24% top-line growth, and $80B and $90B CapEx in 2027 and 2028, respectively.

Under the substantial CapEx estimates, we see WFE spending from TSMC to be up ~30% in 2027 and ~6% in 2028.

We also raised our CoWoS and HBM capacity forecast, and see strong upside in CoWoS spending in 2H26 and a breakout year in HBM packaging spending in 2027.

We are raising our TSMC PT to $530, 18x our 2028 EPS estimate.

We also think this analysis reads positively to names such as KLAC (Buy), NVMI (Buy), ONTO (Buy) and CAMT (Buy) in our semicap coverage.”

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