Cantor Fitzgerald Stands By Neutral on Lucid, $8 Price Target

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated a Neutral rating and $8 price target on Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID).

“Lucid Pre-Announces Q3 Production and Deliveries. On 10/5, LCID pre-announced that it produced 2,954 vehicles in 3Q26, above our estimate of 2,304, and below consensus of 3,709 (and vs.

3,891 in 3Q25).

Additionally, LCID also pre-announced that it delivered 3,806 vehicles in 3Q26, below our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 4,107/4,687 (and below 4,078 in 3Q25).

Deliveries exceeded vehicles produced, as the company converted existing vehicle inventory into deliveries, as previously highlighted by management.

Furthermore, management reaffirmed its ~$1.4B cash flow improvement in 2026 (expected by year-end) across operating expenses, capital expenditures, and working capital, which is encouraging, in our view.

No New Guidance.

LCID’s new management suspended guidance in Q1 (was previously guiding FY26 production of 25,000-27,000 vehicles and FY26 Capex of $1.2B-1.4B), and previously disclosed that it expects Q3 and Q4 production levels to be below Q2.

Management is now targeting to provide FY27 guidance (and mid-term targets) during its year-end results. For this year, we continue to model 15,048 vehicles produced (vs. prior 25,050).

What’s Next? A Catalyst-Heavy Upcoming Schedule. LCID will report 3Q26 earnings on 11/9 after the market close, and host its earnings call at 5:30 PM ET.

Additionally, we expect several potential material catalysts over the next twelve months, including: Launch of robotaxi via Uber/Nuro (4Q26E), the completion of AMP-2 facility in Saudi Arabia (we expect 1Q27E), Midsize ramp (we expect 2H27E), and launch of DreamDrive Pro autonomy subscription (1H27E).

Latest on AMP-2 Facility and Midsize Platform – Targeting Material Ramp-up in 2H27.

LCID recently reaffirmed that its AMP-2 Manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia remains on track after it completed its construction phase and entered its “industrialization phase.” LCID is planning on using this facility to ramp up manufacturing of its upcoming Midsize platform, and the company is targeting initial production in “early-2027.” Lucid’s Midsize platform consists of three different models, and the company is targeting to offer its Midsize vehicle for a starting price <$50,000, which we find encouraging.

Additionally (and perhaps an under-appreciated aspect of Midsize’s preview, yet material, in our view), LCID is targeting its Midsize platform to result in up to a 70% lower unit cost, and we expect LCID’s Midsize to have approximately between 2/3 – 1/2 fewer components than its Gravity SUV vehicles.

Furthermore, management has also previously disclosed that Cosmo and Earth will share ~95% of their components, which we view as encouraging, and by 2028, LCID is targeting Midsize to comprise ~75% of total deliveries.

We continue to view Midsize as the most material catalyst for the company, targeting material production ramp-up in 2H27.

Robotaxi Partnership with Bolt, and Uber Launch On-Track.

Lucid (LCID, N) and Bolt (private), the European ride-hailing platform, recently unveiled a partnership to co-develop and roll out self-driving vehicles across Europe.

Drawing on LCID’s upcoming Midsize platform, Bolt is targeting an initial fleet of ~25K units spanning multiple European markets, followed by its longer-term target of ~100K self-driving vehicles by 2035.

More importantly, this partnership marks an entry for LCID into the European ride-hailing market, which we view as material.

This partnership will complement LCID’s robotaxi partnership with Uber (UBER, OW), which was previously expanded to >35,000 vehicles (from prior ~20,000) over six years, starting in 4Q26.

Liquidity Refresher: “Funded Well into 2027.” LCID reported ~$0.8B in cash, cash equivalents, and investments as of 2Q26 (vs. ~$0.7B as of 1Q26), and total liquidity of ~$3.0B (vs. ~$3.2B in 1Q26), which includes a ~$2.0B unsecured delayed draw term loan facility (DDTL), a ~$270M Asset-Backed Revolving Credit facility (subject to borrowing base availability), and a ~$2M Gulf International Bank (GIB) facility.

More importantly, LCID believes the current liquidity is sufficient to fund the company “well into next year.”

Valuation. Our Neutral Rating and $8 PT on LCID are unchanged, pending a model update. We arrive at our $8 PT via a bottom-up 10-year DCF.

We assume an 11% WACC and a terminal value with a 2% long-term growth rate.

Key risks include: High negative gross margins, additional capital needs, tariffs, continued supply-chain disruptions, manufacturing constraints, a highly competitive market, and slower-than-expected customer adoption.”

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