Raymond James Maintains Strong Buy on SpaceX, $800 Price Target

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale reiterated a Strong Buy rating and $800 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX).

“We see this afternoon’s FAA filing as another meaningful step toward SpaceX’s ambition of transforming Starship from a developmental launch vehicle into a high-cadence transportation system.

The proposed ~18x increase in annual launches at Starbase, combined with recent technical progress and Musk’s confirmation of an upcoming Ship catch attempt, reinforces our view that the remaining debate is increasingly shifting from technical feasibility toward operational scale.

While regulatory approval, full reusability, and launch reliability remain important hurdles, we believe the implications extend well beyond the Space segment.

Higher launch cadence and lower transportation costs are foundational to the next phase of Starlink, Mobile, and orbital AI deployment, making progress points like this exceedingly relevant to our long-term financial model and infrastructure thesis.

Key takeaways are as follows: ● FAA Filing – Starbase Is Being Sized for Industrial Cadence.

An October 13 FAA notice launches environmental review of a proposed 456 Starship launches and 912 landings annually from Boca Chica, versus 25 launches and 50 landings currently authorized—an ~18x increase.

The first phase seeks 100 launches/year; the mature phase would approach nine flights per week. ● What this means – At our 60 V3 Starlink satellites per Starship assumption, 100/456 flights equate to ~6,000/~27,400 satellites annually; alternatively, 100 tons of payload at 100 kW/ ton implies ~1.0/~4.6GW of orbital AI compute deployed per year.

Meanwhile, in Florida, environmental frameworks contemplate 44 annual Starship launches at Kennedy LC-39A and another 76 at Cape Canaveral SLC-37, the latter still undergoing FAA review.

Most importantly, Louisiana’s announced $100B, ten-pad spaceport targets thousands of annual launches, with first launches targeted for 2029. ● Flight 14 – The Ship Catch Is Still the Next Test.

In his October 10 interview, Musk characterized Flight 14’s engine-out as a likely isolated engine-computer software fault; confidence in a safe deorbit, rather than a lack of orbital capability, dictated the decision to proceed to orbit.

More importantly, he explicitly confirmed a planned Starship upperstage catch on the next flight, tentatively four to six weeks away, followed by an ambition to re-fly both stages.

A successful catch would move the debate from whether Starship can survive reentry toward turnaround time, refurbishment, and repeatable reuse.

The heat shield appears increasingly de-risked; sustained reliability and cadence are next to be proven.”

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