StoneX Reaffirms Hold on Meta

StoneX analyst Mark Zgutowicz reiterated a Hold rating on Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META).

“We reiterate our Hold rating in front of Meta’s 3Q print. Wed. 10/21. AMC -see earnings cheat sheet on pg. 3. Our top questions for management are shared below and on pg. 2.

On the print, we expect existing total GAAP expense guidance of $165-$167B to increase at least by the intra-quarter $10B State AG settlement and would not be surprised to see it point incrementally higher reflecting potential incremental 2H Muse-related marketing + R&D/third-party token costs.

We anticipate the mid-point of existing ’26 guided capex of $130-$145B to be tightened higher post Wonder model launch and more competitive frontier investment.

Consistent with past cadence, we expect only directional 27 expense and capex guidance, with a hard guide on the 4Q print.

A key 27 capex consideration is how much spending shifts into (non-capex recorded) cloud contracts, leases and JVs.

We also anticipate incremental gross margin pressure in ‘27E relative to consensus, perhaps on broadly higher D&A + incremental cash COGS tied to new CoreWeave and Nebius contracts.

We further consider Muse a “shipped and delivered product” which would carry inference, per-user VM + background processing costs into COGS, however, we look for management confirmation here as well as on incremental related inference costs.

Lastly, we await discussion on the potential for accelerating neocloud (eg. CoreWeave) payments and any corresponding incremental NT FCF pressure.

Net-net, our ‘27E total expenses/capex are +3.5%/+3.0% above consensus.”

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