Morgan Stanley Reaffirms Overweight on SpaceX, $300 Price Target

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $300 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX).

“Changes to our forecasts: • Revenues: We raise our FY26 and FY27 revenue forecasts to $51bn/$178bn from $48bn/$113bn, driven by AI, which rose to $28bn/$146bn from $25bn/ $81bn. • AI Compute: We now model year-end compute of 2.6 GW, at the lower end of guidance for 2.5-3 GW by year end.

For 2027, we are being conservative relative to guidance at this time while still modeling a notable acceleration on the compute ramp given lack of clarity on securing power, steep execution risks, and financing overhang.

We model 8.3 GW of end-of-year compute vs. the ~13 GW (an incremental 10 GW) Musk indicated on the call. • EBIT: We lower our FY26 EBIT forecast to $6.2bn from $7.7bn (margin of 12.2% from 15.9%), reflecting Cursor acquisition-related SBC and 4Q gross margin returning toward 2Q levels, in line with guidance.

We raise FY27 to $58bn from $35bn. • Capex: We raise our FY26 and FY27 capex forecasts to $86bn/$278bn from $65bn/$161bn, reflecting the faster compute build, with 4Q26 at $40bn (top end of the $35-40bn guide).

AI accounts for the bulk at $68bn/$242bn.

We now model AI capex/watt of roughly $37/W in 2026 and $42/W in 2027. • Starlink Subs and ARPU: We lower our consumer sub forecasts to 15.3mn/24.7mn for FY26/FY27 (vs.

16.7mn/27.8mn prior), offset by higher monthly ARPU of $66.56/$51.56 (vs. $60.41/$47.76 prior).

As a result, Connectivity revenue is little changed at $18.6bn/$25.7bn from $18.2bn/ $25.5bn, up ~2% and ~1%, respectively.”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.