Morgan Stanley Reiterates Overweight on SpaceX, $300 PT

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $300 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX).

“Most likely potential upside surprises: Plans for more than 2 GW of new (incremental) compute deployed next year (both MS and Consensus estimate – each incremental GW is a potential $10-50bn in AI ARR), new chunky neocloud deals (talks with Reflection and the DoW are reported but nothing officially announced), Grok usage trends on Cursor showing material share gains vs. other frontier models, Cursor ARR showing acceleration from the $4bn reported beginning of June (we model $7bn for end of 3Q) Most likely downside surprises: Capex projections materially above the ~$50bn that we model in 2026, commentary that suggests additional funding raises are expected before year-end, plans to prematurely end/renegotiate current neocloud deals, Starlink subscriber figures suggesting a deceleration in adoption.”

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