Bernstein Raises SpaceX Price Target to $268

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Douglas Harned raised the price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) to $268 (from $248) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

“We raise our SpaceX outlook primarily on terrestrial AI build plans. We believe the case for a multi-trillion dollar valuation rests on success of orbital data centers.

But, the company’s outlook for terrestrial AI is a material add to the overall revenue path. The Enterprise & Government Connectivity subsegment also appears to be outperforming.

SpaceX now projects $500bn to $1tn in revenues exiting 2027. Our estimate is well below, with full 2028 at $424bn. But, that is an increase.

And, as we have said, you do not need to go all the way to the company’s plan to make SpaceX attractive.

Elon talked of a possible Tesla merger and SpaceX is reportedly discussing a telco tower deal.

We make no assumptions on either here.

We now assume a total of 13GW of terrestrial compute by the end of 2027 – 5GW above our prior estimate.

Most importantly, the company stressed prices it is getting for compute capacity, suggesting that it is above the $30-50/watt level of recent deals.

We have taken our pricing up, although not to that level. We we add capacity in 2028 up to 20GW. These additions come with capex, which we estimate at $35bn/GW.

If the company achieves its pricing expectations, there could be more upside, both for terrestrial and orbital.

SpaceX plans first orbital data center launches in late 2027, with operations beginning mid-2028. Orbital data centers were not discussed on the call, Starship launches were.

Flight 15 should be within a few weeks, with a plan to capture both booster and Starship.

The company said the heat shield performed well on Flight 14, which could set up the first reuse of Starship on Flight 16. Reusability is key to making orbital data centers successful.”

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