Bernstein Affirms Outperform on SpaceX, $248 Price Target

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Douglas Harned reiterated an Outperform rating and $248 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX).

“A stronger outlook (again) than management previously indicated.

An annual revenue run rate of at least $100bn is expected by year-end, but with now an ARR of $500bn-$1,000 expected by end of 2027 – mostly driven by terrestrial compute.

The company now expects to be close to 2.5-3GW by the end of 2026. By the end of 2027 capacity is expected to be at least13GW (and possibly a total 23GW).

The company said pricing is now tracking above the $30-$50/watt range given by Musk at Q2. Short term compute contracts will remain the focus to take advantage of rising demand.

This year, SpaceX hopes to have the first fully reusable orbital flight next (Launch 15). SpaceX will try to catch both first and second stage on this flight.

SpaceX now targets one launch per week in 1H27, ramping to two launches per week by year-end 2027 (when the company intends to be operating five launch pads).

That launch rate will require regular reuse of both the booster and the second stage, which is central to the orbital data center concept. Orbital data centers were not discussed on the call.”

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