Evercore ISI Maintains Outperform on Apple, $380 Price Target

Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani reiterated an Outperform rating and $380 price target on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).

“With the recent proliferation of personal AI agents (i.e. Meta’s Muse, Gemini Spark, Instinct), investor attention has shifted toward what Siri AI could become as AAPL broadens the rollout.

Users in select geos already have access to the beta, though functionality remains limited vs. competing offerings.

We think Siri AI could create a sizable opportunity for AAPL + unlock new monetization paths, but first needs to turn its existing capabilities into more reliable execution + useful outcomes.

We see five key debates surrounding it: 1) Can Siri Close the Gap?

Siri AI is still largely request-based, but the biggest opportunity is deeper third-party app connectivity + persistent execution, including tasks that continue while the device is idle/off; capabilities some competitors already offer.

2) Why AAPL Has the Right to Win: Siri AI’s biggest advantage is native access across apps + payments, allowing it to use app actions, personal context + Apple Pay to execute transactions with less friction than web-based agents relying on third-party payments.

3) Sizing the Opportunity? Our prior survey work suggests ~60% of U.S. users own a Siri AI-compatible iPhone.

Applying a more conservative rate globally, we estimate ~550-560M compatible users across AAPL’s ~1.4B active iPhone base vs. ~100K/~10M for Instinct/Muse. 4) Can AAPL Support the Compute?

On-device processing, PCC + third-party cloud capacity can support a more capable Siri, but model inference, tool execution, memory, storage + networking would add additional capex.

Capacity + economics decisions could shape the pace of rollout. 5) How Can AAPL Monetize Siri?

Our scenarios imply ~$21B of annualized subscription revs at ~125M paying accounts/$14 per month, or ~$45B of transaction revs at ~125M monthly transacting users, $600/month of eligible spend + a hypothetical 5% take rate.

Net/Net: AAPL has the right assets to win in personal agents but from beta to launch execution will be paramount.

If Siri AI can close gaps in background execution + task memory, we think it can become a meaningful monetization platform and increase hardware stickiness over time.

Sticking with our OP and $380 target.”

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